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České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
3/1/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 24Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice35%
×Draw26%
Baník Ostrava40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.29
Baník Ostrava
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 124 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
1.20
Baník Ostrava
1.26

allows per match

České Budějovice
1.53
Baník Ostrava
1.38

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
60%
České Budějovice or Baník Ostrava
74%
Draw or Baník Ostrava
65%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
15%
Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
72%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
37%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
14%
Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
75%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
41%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
47%
Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.38 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Baník Ostrava attack 1.26 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

České Budějovice scores more
35%
level
26%
Baník Ostrava scores more
40%

Baník Ostrava at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava

Baník Ostrava beat České Budějovice 4-0 in Czech Liga on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.