Baník Ostrava 2–0 České Budějovice: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

České Budějovice

8/26/2023

Czech Liga · Round 6Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Baník Ostrava56%

×Draw22%

České Budějovice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.06

Baník Ostrava

1.88

České Budějovice

1.06

Baník Ostrava creates 77% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 102 away

1.69

creates per match

0.98

1.14

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

1.69

České Budějovice

0.98

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.14

České Budějovice

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Ostrava+0.00on par

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

České Budějovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

79%

Baník Ostrava or České Budějovice

78%

Draw or České Budějovice

44%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

33%

České Budějovice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

85%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

56%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

29%

České Budějovice 1+ goals

65%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

29%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

73%

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.14 · 122 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 1.69 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

56%

level

22%

České Budějovice scores more

21%

Baník Ostrava at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff