České Budějovice U19 3–3 Slovan Liberec U19

České Budějovice U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Slovan Liberec U19

4/6/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 21SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

České Budějovice U1955%

×Draw20%

Slovan Liberec U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České Budějovice U19Expected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.50

České Budějovice U19

2.27

Slovan Liberec U19

1.50

České Budějovice U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

2.06

creates per match

1.31

1.68

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

České Budějovice U19

2.06

Slovan Liberec U19

1.31

allows per match

České Budějovice U19

1.68

Slovan Liberec U19

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Slovan Liberec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Slovan Liberec U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw

75%

České Budějovice U19 or Slovan Liberec U19

80%

Draw or Slovan Liberec U19

45%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+

34%

Slovan Liberec U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals

90%

České Budějovice U19 2+ goals

66%

České Budějovice U19 3+ goals

39%

Slovan Liberec U19 1+ goals

78%

Slovan Liberec U19 2+ goals

44%

Slovan Liberec U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Slovan Liberec U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Slovan Liberec U19 away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Slovan Liberec U19 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.27

Slovan Liberec U19 attack 1.31 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Slovan Liberec U19 scores more

25%

České Budějovice U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff