Cesena 2–3 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Spezia

T. Berti 53'

C. Shpendi 4'

G. Artistico 75', 17'

G. Aurelio 67'

2/21/2026

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cesena47%

×Draw23%

Spezia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.36

Cesena

1.77

Spezia

1.36

Cesena creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.66

creates per match

1.46

1.27

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Cesena

1.66

Spezia

1.46

allows per match

Cesena

1.27

Spezia

1.89

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.46scores less

Spezia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

70%

Cesena or Spezia

77%

Draw or Spezia

53%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

25%

Spezia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

83%

Cesena 2+ goals

53%

Cesena 3+ goals

26%

Spezia 1+ goals

74%

Spezia 2+ goals

39%

Spezia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

61%

Spezia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.27 · 10 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.66 + Spezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.77

Spezia attack 1.46 + Cesena defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cesena scores more

47%

level

23%

Spezia scores more

30%

Cesena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Artistico

Spezia · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

C. Shpendi↳ G. Frabotta

15'

Alessandro Bellemo

17'

G. Artistico↳ A. Bellemo

23'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

46'

M. Piacentini← M. Mangraviti

53'

T. Berti

57'

Laurs Skjellerup

58'

L. Vignali← M. Ruggero

58'

C. Comotto← A. Bellemo

64'

G. Aurelio← P. Beruatto

65'

V. Vlahovic← L. Skjellerup

67'

G. Aurelio↳ L. Sernicola

69'

V. Magni← G. Frabotta

72'

M. Olivieri←

72'

T. Corazza← A. Cerri

75'

G. Artistico

76'

Gabriele ArtisticoGoal confirmed

82'

G. Vrioni← T. Berti

84'

A. Nagy← E. Adamo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaSpezia

Overview

52%Possession48%

22Total Shots9

2.77Expected Goals (xG)1.25

7Corners0

11Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots9

8On Target6

8Off Target2

6Blocked1

16Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

447Total Passes437

368Accurate Passes362

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.89Goals Prevented0.89

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Cesena vs Spezia

Spezia beat Cesena 3-2 in Serie B on February 21, 2026.

Goals: C. Shpendi (4'), G. Artistico (17', 75'), T. Berti (53'), G. Aurelio (67').

Cesena controlled possession (52%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cesena vs Spezia