Cesena 0–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

3/15/2025

Serie B · Round 30Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cesena44%

×Draw23%

Spezia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.55

Cesena

1.83

Spezia

1.55

Cesena creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.76

creates per match

1.71

1.39

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Cesena

1.76

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Cesena

1.39

Spezia

1.90

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.26scores less

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

67%

Cesena or Spezia

77%

Draw or Spezia

56%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

24%

Spezia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

84%

Cesena 2+ goals

54%

Cesena 3+ goals

28%

Spezia 1+ goals

79%

Spezia 2+ goals

46%

Spezia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

57%

Spezia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 14 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.76 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.83

Spezia attack 1.71 + Cesena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cesena scores more

44%

level

23%

Spezia scores more

33%

Cesena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Pisseri

Cesena · G

8.0

Match Events

57'

Giacomo CalòGoal cancelled

63'

Andrea Ciofi

68'

Gianluca LapadulaPenalty confirmed

69'

Matteo Pisseri

69'

Gianluca LapadulaMissed penalty

71'

Rachid Kouda

74'

E. Tavşan← S. Bastoni

75'

L. Vignali← S. Elia

75'

P. Candelari← R. Kouda

82'

F. Russo← C. Shpendi

82'

J. Ceesay← E. Adamo

82'

L. Mendicino← G. Calò

82'

G. Di Serio← G. Lapadula

83'

F. Cassata← F. Bandinelli

86'

D. Falcinelli← Á. Nagy

88'

Luca Vignali

90+1'

D. Šarić← T. Berti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaSpezia

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots18

8Corners7

12Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots18

1On Target5

4Off Target9

7Blocked4

8Inside Box15

4Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

310Total Passes367

226Accurate Passes287

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 0–0 Spezia

Cesena and Spezia drew 0-0 in Serie B on March 15, 2025.

Spezia controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 0–0 Spezia