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Cesena vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
4/25/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cesena46%
×Draw27%
Sampdoria27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.43
Sampdoria
1.03

Cesena creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.56
Sampdoria
0.94

allows per match

Cesena
1.13
Sampdoria
1.30

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less
Sampdoria-0.19scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
73%
Cesena or Sampdoria
73%
Draw or Sampdoria
54%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
22%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
76%
Cesena 2+ goals
42%
Cesena 3+ goals
17%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
64%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
28%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
63%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.56 + Sampdoria defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sampdoria attack 0.94 + Cesena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cesena scores more
46%
level
27%
Sampdoria scores more
27%

Cesena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. RicciSampdoriaSampdoria · M
7.7

Match Events

9'
Mattia VitiGoal cancelled
30'
Luigi Cherubini
54'
G. Frabotta← T. Corazza
55'
G. Castrovilli← S. Bastoni
57'
Dennis Hadžikadunić
64'
Oliver Abildgaard
65'
F. Depaoli← L. Henderson
65'
M. Palma← D. Hadzikadunic
75'
F. Conti← O. Abildgaard
79'
R. Ciervo← A. Cerri
84'
E. Soleri← M. Brunori
84'
M. Cicconi← L. Cherubini
87'
G. Vrioni← M. Olivieri
87'
V. Magni← A. Ciofi
90+4'
Gianluca Frabotta

Possession

51%Cesena

Shots

10Cesena

Pass accuracy

49%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaSampdoria
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots13
0.47Expected Goals (xG)0.56
4Corners5
16Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots13
2On Target3
5Off Target5
3Blocked5
5Inside Box5
5Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
442Total Passes428
370Accurate Passes368
84%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
0.24Goals Prevented0.24
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Serie B: Cesena 0–0 Sampdoria

Cesena and Sampdoria drew 0-0 in Serie B on April 25, 2026.

Cesena controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.