Cesena 3–5 Sampdoria: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Sampdoria

10/20/2024

Serie B · Round 9Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cesena43%

×Draw26%

Sampdoria32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchSampdoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.23

Cesena

1.48

Sampdoria

1.23

Cesena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 58 away

1.44

creates per match

1.14

1.31

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Cesena

1.44

Sampdoria

1.14

allows per match

Cesena

1.31

Sampdoria

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par

Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Sampdoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

68%

Cesena or Sampdoria

74%

Draw or Sampdoria

57%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

21%

Sampdoria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

77%

Cesena 2+ goals

43%

Cesena 3+ goals

19%

Sampdoria 1+ goals

71%

Sampdoria 2+ goals

35%

Sampdoria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

58%

Sampdoria (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.44 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesena scores more

43%

level

26%

Sampdoria scores more

32%

Cesena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff