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Cesena vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Modena
Modena
J. Blesa 43'
11/28/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 14Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cesena40%
×Draw26%
Modena33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.39
Modena
1.24

Cesena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.60
Modena
1.24

allows per match

Cesena
1.24
Modena
1.17

finishing

Cesena-0.47scores less
Modena-0.54scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Modena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
67%
Cesena or Modena
74%
Draw or Modena
60%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
19%
Modena wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
75%
Cesena 2+ goals
40%
Cesena 3+ goals
16%
Modena 1+ goals
71%
Modena 2+ goals
35%
Modena 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
55%
Modena (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 8 matches

Modena away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.60 + Modena defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Modena attack 1.24 + Cesena defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cesena scores more
40%
level
26%
Modena scores more
33%

Cesena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
J. KlinsmannCesenaCesena · G
10.0

Match Events

32'
Massimiliano Mangraviti
43'
J. Blesa↳ J. Klinsmann
55'
Y. Massolin← G. Defrel
55'
N. Pyyhtia← A. Sersanti
62'
M. Olivieri← J. Blesa
74'
G. Beyuku← S. Santoro
74'
G. Caso← L. Zanimacchia
74'
P. Mendes← E. Gliozzi
79'
S. Bastoni← C. Shpendi
79'
E. Adamo← T. Berti
89'
Bryant Nieling
90'
M. Guidi← M. Castagnetti
90'
S. Balde← R. Ciervo

Possession

42%Cesena

Shots

14Cesena

Pass accuracy

49%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaModena
Overview
42%Possession58%
14Total Shots18
1.84Expected Goals (xG)2.01
7Corners8
15Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots18
2On Target6
7Off Target5
5Blocked7
7Inside Box11
7Outside Box7
Passing
42%Possession58%
378Total Passes514
313Accurate Passes450
83%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 1–0 Modena

Cesena beat Modena 1-0 in Serie B on November 28, 2025.

Goals: J. Blesa (43').

Modena controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.