Cesena 2–2 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Modena

C. Shpendi 45+1' (pen)

S. Bastoni 39'

G. Zaro 55'

Pedro Mendes 28'

9/13/2024

Serie B · Round 5Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cesena41%

×Draw27%

Modena32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.14

Cesena

1.33

Modena

1.14

Cesena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

1.15

1.13

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Cesena

1.56

Modena

1.15

allows per match

Cesena

1.13

Modena

1.09

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less

Modena-0.37scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

68%

Cesena or Modena

73%

Draw or Modena

59%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

19%

Modena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

74%

Cesena 2+ goals

38%

Cesena 3+ goals

15%

Modena 1+ goals

68%

Modena 2+ goals

32%

Modena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

56%

Modena (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Modena away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.56 + Modena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Modena attack 1.15 + Cesena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cesena scores more

41%

level

27%

Modena scores more

32%

Cesena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

G. Calò

Cesena · M

7.9

Match Events

25'

Cristian Shpendi

28'

Pedro Mendes↳ G. Caso

32'

Matteo Cotali

39'

S. Bastoni

45'

Massimiliano MangravitiPenalty confirmed

45+1'

C. ShpendiPenalty

46'

F. Abiuso← S. Santoro

46'

R. Idrissi← M. Cotali

49'

55'

63'

65'

65'

Mattia CaldaraCard upgrade

67'

A. Kargbo← T. Berti

67'

A. Pergreffi← Pedro Mendes

78'

J. Ceesay← E. Adamo

79'

S. van Hooijdonk← C. Shpendi

89'

R. Chiarello← D. Donnarumma

89'

R. Celia← S. Bastoni

89'

C. Cauz← K. Bozhanaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaModena

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots10

3Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

6Off Target2

2Blocked4

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

527Total Passes363

458Accurate Passes274

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Serie B: Cesena 2–2 Modena

Cesena and Modena drew 2-2 in Serie B on September 13, 2024.

Goals: Pedro Mendes (28'), S. Bastoni (39'), C. Shpendi (45+1' pen), G. Zaro (55').

Cesena controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cesena 2–2 Modena