Cesena 3–0 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cesena

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Avellino

J. Blesa 51'

C. Shpendi 45' (pen)

R. Ciervo 27'

11/9/2025

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cesena58%

×Draw24%

Avellino18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CesenaExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.85

Cesena

1.71

Avellino

0.85

Cesena creates 101% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.84

creates per match

0.44

1.27

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cesena

1.84

Avellino

0.44

allows per match

Cesena

1.27

Avellino

1.57

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Cesena-0.22scores less

Avellino+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cesena or draw

82%

Cesena or Avellino

76%

Draw or Avellino

42%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+

32%

Avellino wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals

82%

Cesena 2+ goals

51%

Cesena 3+ goals

24%

Avellino 1+ goals

57%

Avellino 2+ goals

21%

Avellino 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)

76%

Avellino (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.27 · 13 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.57 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.84 + Avellino defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Avellino attack 0.44 + Cesena defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cesena scores more

58%

level

24%

Avellino scores more

18%

Cesena at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Ciervo

Cesena · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Francesco Patierno

27'

R. Ciervo↳ C. Shpendi

29'

Matteo Francesconi

30'

M. Rigione← L. Simic

35'

Alessandro Fontanarosa

45+2'

Giovanni ZaroPenalty confirmed

45+3'

Michele Rigione

45'

C. ShpendiPenalty

46'

R. Russo← V. Crespi

46'

G. Tutino← M. Besaggio

51'

J. Blesa↳ R. Ciervo

53'

Jalen Blesa

61'

Dimitrios Sounas

62'

F. Lescano← R. Insigne

65'

S. Bastoni← T. Berti

65'

M. Olivieri← C. Shpendi

74'

J. Kumi← D. Sounas

78'

E. Adamo← M. Francesconi

78'

83'

85'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesenaAvellino

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots13

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.47

5Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked5

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

346Total Passes614

277Accurate Passes550

80%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Cesena vs Avellino

Cesena beat Avellino 3-0 in Serie B on November 9, 2025.

Goals: R. Ciervo (27'), C. Shpendi (45' pen), J. Blesa (51').

Avellino controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Cesena vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cesena vs Avellino