Avellino 3–1 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cesena

T. Biasci 62', 37', 17'

M. Olivieri 8'

1/31/2026

Serie B · Round 22Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Avellino43%

×Draw26%

Cesena31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.18

Avellino

1.43

Cesena

1.18

Avellino creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.54

creates per match

1.04

1.31

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Avellino

1.54

Cesena

1.04

allows per match

Avellino

1.31

Cesena

1.32

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.75scores less than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.04on par

Cesena-0.75scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

69%

Avellino or Cesena

74%

Draw or Cesena

57%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

20%

Cesena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

76%

Avellino 2+ goals

42%

Avellino 3+ goals

17%

Cesena 1+ goals

69%

Cesena 2+ goals

33%

Cesena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

58%

Cesena (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.54 + Cesena defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cesena attack 1.04 + Avellino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avellino scores more

43%

level

26%

Cesena scores more

31%

Avellino at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Biasci

Avellino · F

9.3

Match Events

8'

M. Olivieri↳ D. Bisoli

17'

T. Biasci↳ D. Sounas

33'

Gianluca Frabotta

37'

Matteo Piacentini

37'

T. Biasci↳ M. Palumbo

54'

M. Besaggio← D. Sounas

62'

T. Biasci

64'

V. Magni← M. Piacentini

64'

M. Francesconi← D. Bisoli

64'

M. Guidi← A. Ciofi

70'

M. Armellino← L. Palmiero

70'

G. Tutino← C. Patierno

75'

S. Balde← M. Olivieri

77'

Patrick Enrici

81'

T. Arrigoni← M. Castagnetti

86'

R. Russo← T. Biasci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoCesena

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots11

1.61Expected Goals (xG)2.40

7Corners4

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target5

5Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

491Total Passes498

403Accurate Passes420

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Serie B: Avellino 3–1 Cesena

Avellino beat Cesena 3-1 in Serie B on January 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Olivieri (8'), T. Biasci (17', 37', 62').

Cesena controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.

Avellino vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Avellino 3–1 Cesena