Cesena U19 2–5 Bologna U19: Result & Stats

Cesena U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Bologna U19

5/26/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 34Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cesena U1933%

×Draw25%

Bologna U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesena U19Expected goals in this matchBologna U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.48

Cesena U19

1.29

Bologna U19

1.48

Bologna U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

0.71

creates per match

1.24

1.71

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cesena U19

0.71

Bologna U19

1.24

allows per match

Cesena U19

1.71

Bologna U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Bologna U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Bologna U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw

58%

Cesena U19 or Bologna U19

75%

Draw or Bologna U19

67%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

14%

Bologna U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals

72%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

37%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

14%

Bologna U19 1+ goals

77%

Bologna U19 2+ goals

43%

Bologna U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Bologna U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 0.71 + Bologna U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bologna U19 attack 1.24 + Cesena U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cesena U19 scores more

33%

level

25%

Bologna U19 scores more

42%

Bologna U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bologna U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff