Bologna U19 3–2 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Bologna U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cesena U19

2/5/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 17Centro Tecnico Niccolò Galli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bologna U1960%

×Draw19%

Cesena U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bologna U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.33

Bologna U19

2.34

Cesena U19

1.33

Bologna U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

1.44

creates per match

1.06

1.59

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Bologna U19

1.44

Cesena U19

1.06

allows per match

Bologna U19

1.59

Cesena U19

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw

79%

Bologna U19 or Cesena U19

81%

Draw or Cesena U19

40%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+

38%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals

90%

Bologna U19 2+ goals

67%

Bologna U19 3+ goals

41%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

74%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

38%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.34

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bologna U19 scores more

60%

level

19%

Cesena U19 scores more

21%

Bologna U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bologna U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff