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Cesena U19 vs Ascoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Cesena U19
Cesena U19
FT
2 – 1
Ascoli U19
Ascoli U19
11/6/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 8Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cesena U1967%
×Draw17%
Ascoli U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U19
2.60
Ascoli U19
1.19

Cesena U19 creates 118% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 73 away

creates per match

Cesena U19
3.63
Ascoli U19
1.48

allows per match

Cesena U19
0.89
Ascoli U19
1.58

finishing

Cesena U19+0.00on par
Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U19 ↓

Ascoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cesena U19 or draw
84%
Cesena U19 or Ascoli U19
83%
Draw or Ascoli U19
33%

Winning margin

Cesena U19 wins by 2+
46%
Ascoli U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cesena U19 1+ goals
92%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
73%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
47%
Ascoli U19 1+ goals
70%
Ascoli U19 2+ goals
33%
Ascoli U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U19 at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Ascoli U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U19 attack 3.63 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.60

Ascoli U19 attack 1.48 + Cesena U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cesena U19 scores more
67%
level
17%
Ascoli U19 scores more
16%

Cesena U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Cesena U19 2–1 Ascoli U19

Cesena U19 beat Ascoli U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Alberto Rognoni in Villa Silvia di Lizzano.