Ascoli U19 1–5 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Ascoli U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Cesena U19

12/2/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 10Centro Sportivo Città di Ascoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ascoli U1935%

×Draw22%

Cesena U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ascoli U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.91

Ascoli U19

1.71

Cesena U19

1.91

Cesena U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 28 away

2.00

creates per match

2.57

1.25

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ascoli U19

2.00

Cesena U19

2.57

allows per match

Ascoli U19

1.25

Cesena U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ascoli U19 or draw

57%

Ascoli U19 or Cesena U19

78%

Draw or Cesena U19

65%

Winning margin

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+

18%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Ascoli U19 1+ goals

82%

Ascoli U19 2+ goals

51%

Ascoli U19 3+ goals

24%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

85%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

57%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 75 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli U19 attack 2.00 + Cesena U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cesena U19 attack 2.57 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ascoli U19 scores more

35%

level

22%

Cesena U19 scores more

43%

Cesena U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff