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Cesar Vallejo vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
L. Urruti 53'
9/28/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cesar Vallejo40%
×Draw28%
Universitario32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.27
Universitario
1.09

Cesar Vallejo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 139 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.53
Universitario
1.30

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.89
Universitario
1.02

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
68%
Cesar Vallejo or Universitario
72%
Draw or Universitario
60%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
18%
Universitario wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
72%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
36%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
14%
Universitario 1+ goals
66%
Universitario 2+ goals
30%
Universitario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
56%
Universitario (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 94 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.53 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universitario attack 1.30 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
40%
level
28%
Universitario scores more
32%

Cesar Vallejo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. CarvalloUniversitarioUniversitario · G
7.5

Match Events

28'
Jairo Vélez
46'
E. Benítez← S. González
53'
L. Urruti
60'
Alex Valera
67'
É. Flores← L. Urruti
77'
Jairo VélezPenalty cancelled
78'
Rodrigo Ureña
83'
A. Ramírez← A. Fuentes
83'
J. Murrugarra← A. Valera
83'
H. Calcaterra← P. Quispe
90+5'
J. Rivera← J. Bolívar
90+6'
P. Guzmán← M. Pérez

Possession

61%Cesar

Shots

7Cesar

Pass accuracy

54%Cesar

Statistics

CesarUniversitario
Overview
61%Possession39%
7Total Shots7
4Corners3
10Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots7
2On Target5
5Off Target2
0Blocked0
3Inside Box3
4Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
436Total Passes280
339Accurate Passes188
78%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cesar Vallejo vs Universitario

Universitario beat Cesar Vallejo 1-0 in Primera División on September 28, 2023.

Goals: L. Urruti (53').

Cesar Vallejo controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.