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Cesar Vallejo vs Universitario — Primera División 2026

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Universitario
Universitario
J. Vélez 14'
7/28/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cesar Vallejo40%
×Draw28%
Universitario32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.27
Universitario
1.09

Cesar Vallejo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 139 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.53
Universitario
1.30

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.89
Universitario
1.02

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
68%
Cesar Vallejo or Universitario
72%
Draw or Universitario
60%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
18%
Universitario wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
72%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
36%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
14%
Universitario 1+ goals
66%
Universitario 2+ goals
30%
Universitario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
56%
Universitario (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 94 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.53 + Universitario defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Universitario attack 1.30 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
40%
level
28%
Universitario scores more
32%

Cesar Vallejo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. VélezCesar VallejoCesar Vallejo · F
7.9

Match Events

12'
Carlos Ascues
14'
J. Vélez↳ A. Figuera
41'
Alberto Ampuero
46'
J. Guivin← G. Barreto
62'
O. Noronha← L. da Silva
66'
Jairo Vélez
90+24'
Frank Ysique
90+22'
Jersson Vásquez
90+18'
Ronald Quinteros
90+22'
Nelinho Quina
90+10'
R. Quinteros← C. Cabello
90+3'
H. Novick← A. Polo
90+3'
A. Quintero← A. Barco

Possession

42%Cesar

Shots

13Cesar

Pass accuracy

46%Cesar

Statistics

CesarUniversitario
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots20
3Corners7
24Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots20
7On Target3
4Off Target11
2Blocked6
8Inside Box11
5Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
324Total Passes435
215Accurate Passes332
66%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
24Fouls14
6Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Primera División: Cesar Vallejo 1–0 Universitario

Cesar Vallejo beat Universitario 1-0 in Primera División on July 28, 2022.

Goals: J. Vélez (14').

Universitario controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.