Cesar Vallejo 2–1 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

Cesar Vallejo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Huancayo

J. Vélez 71'

Y. Mena 44'

C. Monsalvo 89'

9/17/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cesar Vallejo55%

×Draw24%

Sport Huancayo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesar VallejoExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.95

Cesar Vallejo

1.72

Sport Huancayo

0.95

Cesar Vallejo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.58

creates per match

0.89

1.01

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.58

Sport Huancayo

0.89

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.01

Sport Huancayo

1.86

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cesar Vallejo-0.44scores less

Sport Huancayo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw

79%

Cesar Vallejo or Sport Huancayo

76%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

45%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

31%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

82%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

51%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

25%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

61%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

25%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

73%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 7 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.58 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sport Huancayo attack 0.89 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more

55%

level

24%

Sport Huancayo scores more

21%

Cesar Vallejo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Vásquez

Cesar Vallejo · D

7.7

Match Events

-5'

27'

38'

44'

45+2'

46'

48'

61'

C. Monsalvo← R. Huaccha

61'

L. Benítes← D. Morales

62'

O. Noronha← L. da Silva

66'

71'

74'

74'

82'

V. Perlaza← H. Ángeles

86'

Victor Balta

89'

C. Monsalvo↳ L. Benítes

90+2'

Jimmy Pérez

90+3'

J. Quiñónes← J. Vélez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesarSport

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots13

0Corners6

23Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

4Off Target1

2Blocked7

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

443Total Passes451

365Accurate Passes350

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

5Offsides6