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Cesar Vallejo vs Carlos Stein — Primera División 2018

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
10/14/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cesar Vallejo57%
×Draw24%
Carlos Stein19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.73
Carlos Stein
0.90

Cesar Vallejo creates 92% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.54
Carlos Stein
0.91

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.88
Carlos Stein
1.91

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
81%
Cesar Vallejo or Carlos Stein
76%
Draw or Carlos Stein
43%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
32%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
82%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
52%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
25%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
59%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
23%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
75%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Carlos Stein defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Carlos Stein attack 0.91 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
57%
level
24%
Carlos Stein scores more
19%

Cesar Vallejo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Cesar Vallejo 3–0 Carlos Stein

Cesar Vallejo beat Carlos Stein 3-0 in Primera División on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.