Carlos Stein 2–2 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

Carlos Stein

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cesar Vallejo

9/12/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 11Sports Complex Videna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carlos Stein36%

×Draw26%

Cesar Vallejo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos SteinExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.34

Carlos Stein

1.29

Cesar Vallejo

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 98 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

1.68

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Carlos Stein

1.21

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

Carlos Stein

1.68

Cesar Vallejo

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw

62%

Carlos Stein or Cesar Vallejo

74%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

64%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

16%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

72%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

37%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

14%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

74%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

39%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

48%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Carlos Stein scores more

36%

level

26%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

38%

Cesar Vallejo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff