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Cesar Vallejo vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
7/30/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Cesar Vallejo43%
×Draw28%
Alianza Lima29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesar Vallejo
1.31
Alianza Lima
1.02

Cesar Vallejo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 151 away

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo
1.54
Alianza Lima
1.17

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo
0.88
Alianza Lima
1.09

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw
71%
Cesar Vallejo or Alianza Lima
72%
Draw or Alianza Lima
57%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
20%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
73%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
38%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
64%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
27%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
60%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more
43%
level
28%
Alianza Lima scores more
29%

Cesar Vallejo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Cesar Vallejo 1–1 Alianza Lima

Cesar Vallejo and Alianza Lima drew 1-1 in Primera División on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.