Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alianza Lima vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
5/12/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alianza Lima54%
×Draw25%
Cesar Vallejo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.60
Cesar Vallejo
0.89

Alianza Lima creates 80% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 99 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.83
Cesar Vallejo
1.00

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.77
Cesar Vallejo
1.36

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
79%
Alianza Lima or Cesar Vallejo
75%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
46%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
29%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
80%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
47%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
22%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
59%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
22%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
72%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
54%
level
25%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
21%

Alianza Lima at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Lima vs Cesar Vallejo

Alianza Lima beat Cesar Vallejo 2-0 in Primera División on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.