Cesar Vallejo 0–0 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

Cesar Vallejo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Atletico

8/19/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cesar Vallejo54%

×Draw25%

Alianza Atletico21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesar VallejoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.89

Cesar Vallejo

1.58

Alianza Atletico

0.89

Cesar Vallejo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 93 away

1.54

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.54

Alianza Atletico

0.89

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo

0.88

Alianza Atletico

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw

79%

Cesar Vallejo or Alianza Atletico

75%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

46%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

28%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

79%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

47%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

21%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

72%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more

54%

level

25%

Alianza Atletico scores more

21%

Cesar Vallejo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff