Alianza Atletico 1–1 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

Alianza Atletico

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cesar Vallejo

3/14/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Alianza Atletico47%

×Draw27%

Cesar Vallejo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.97

Alianza Atletico

1.41

Cesar Vallejo

0.97

Alianza Atletico creates 45% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

1.46

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.46

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.93

Cesar Vallejo

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

74%

Alianza Atletico or Cesar Vallejo

73%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

53%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

23%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

17%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

62%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

25%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

65%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.46 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

47%

level

27%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

26%

Alianza Atletico at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff