Cerro Porteno 4–2 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Cerro Porteno

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bolívar

J. Morel 72'

J. Torres 61', 47', 45'

R. Vaca 89', 17'

4/1/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cerro Porteno53%

×Draw26%

Bolívar21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerro PortenoExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.81

Cerro Porteno

1.48

Bolívar

0.81

Cerro Porteno creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

0.41

1.21

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Cerro Porteno

1.29

Bolívar

0.41

allows per match

Cerro Porteno

1.21

Bolívar

1.68

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.51scores more

Bolívar+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw

79%

Cerro Porteno or Bolívar

74%

Draw or Bolívar

47%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

27%

Bolívar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

77%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

43%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

19%

Bolívar 1+ goals

56%

Bolívar 2+ goals

19%

Bolívar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

72%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 5 matches

Bolívar away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.68 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.29 + Bolívar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bolívar attack 0.41 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more

53%

level

26%

Bolívar scores more

21%

Cerro Porteno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Torres

Cerro Porteno · F

9.7

Match Events

17'

R. Vaca

22'

E. Saavedra← M. Torren

32'

Leonel Justiniano

45'

J. Torres↳ A. Benitez

46'

S. Araujo← B. Valdez

47'

J. Torres↳ R. Piris

58'

Bruno Savio← C. A. Melgar

61'

J. Torres↳ G. Aguayo

66'

Jesús Sagredo

72'

J. Morel↳ G. Velazquez

73'

E. Vaca Moreno← Robson Matheus

73'

J. Velasquez← Pato Rodriguez

76'

W. Viera← F. Carrizo

80'

D. Rodriguez← J. Torres

80'

L. A. Quintana Rodriguez← G. Aguayo

81'

A. Sonora← G. Gimenez

84'

Bruno Sávio

84'

Bruno SávioCard upgrade

89'

R. Vaca

90+4'

Alan Benítez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CerroBolívar

Overview

32%Possession68%

19Total Shots10

1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.38

6Corners4

13Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots10

6On Target5

11Off Target4

2Blocked1

13Inside Box2

6Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

231Total Passes497

168Accurate Passes429

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-2.35Goals Prevented-2.35

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1