Bolívar 2–0 Cerro Porteno: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cerro Porteno

L. Chávez 48'

G. Villamíl 5'

6/7/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolívar54%

×Draw25%

Cerro Porteno22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchCerro Porteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.92

Bolívar

1.61

Cerro Porteno

0.92

Bolívar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

2.17

creates per match

0.74

1.09

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Bolívar

2.17

Cerro Porteno

0.74

allows per match

Bolívar

1.09

Cerro Porteno

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Cerro Porteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

78%

Bolívar or Cerro Porteno

75%

Draw or Cerro Porteno

46%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

28%

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

80%

Bolívar 2+ goals

48%

Bolívar 3+ goals

22%

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

60%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

23%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

71%

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.17 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cerro Porteno attack 0.74 + Bolívar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bolívar scores more

54%

level

25%

Cerro Porteno scores more

22%

Bolívar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Ronnie Fernández

Bolívar · F

7.5

Match Events

1'

Bryan Bentaberry

5'

G. Villamíl

9'

Ronnie Fernández

40'

D. Bobadilla← W. Viera

48'

L. Chávez↳ Diego Bejarano

66'

C. Algarañaz← L. Chávez

66'

R. Vaca← P. Rodríguez

67'

Jesús Sagredo← B. Bentaberry

72'

Roberto Fernández

75'

Eduardo Brock← P. Álvarez

76'

R. Morales← C. Aquino

82'

Ronnie FernándezPenalty cancelled

85'

Miguel Villarroel← Diego Bejarano

85'

A. Galeano← E. Giménez

90+4'

J. Uzeda← R. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolívarCerro

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots13

1Corners4

12Fouls4

Shots

18Total Shots13

6On Target2

7Off Target9

5Blocked2

14Inside Box3

4Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

335Total Passes411

255Accurate Passes328

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls4

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1