Cerro Porteno 1–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Cerro Porteno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

E. Giménez 5'

5/26/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group H - 6Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cerro Porteno42%

×Draw27%

America de Cali32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerro PortenoExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Cerro Porteno

1.38

America de Cali

1.17

Cerro Porteno creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.17

1.16

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cerro Porteno

1.25

America de Cali

1.17

allows per match

Cerro Porteno

1.16

America de Cali

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw

68%

Cerro Porteno or America de Cali

73%

Draw or America de Cali

58%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

19%

America de Cali wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

75%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

40%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

16%

America de Cali 1+ goals

69%

America de Cali 2+ goals

33%

America de Cali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

57%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.25 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

America de Cali attack 1.17 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more

42%

level

27%

America de Cali scores more

32%

Cerro Porteno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

S. Moreno

America de Cali · F

7.7

Match Events

5'

E. Giménez↳ R. Morales

45'

Wílder Viera

56'

Héctor Quiñónes

58'

Luis Alejandro Paz

65'

D. Vergara← Y. Cabrera

68'

Juan Patiño

75'

A. Maíz← M. Boselli

75'

A. Rodríguez← W. Viera

75'

D. Cambindo← S. Lucumí

75'

L. Sánchez← L. Paz

82'

S. Bareiro← R. Morales

86'

J. Rodríguez← L. Sánchez

88'

P. Adorno← C. Aquino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CerroAmerica

Overview

36%Possession64%

7Total Shots15

1Corners9

13Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target4

3Off Target7

0Blocked4

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

319Total Passes549

224Accurate Passes448

70%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3