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America de Cali vs Cerro Porteno — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

America de Cali
America de Cali
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Á. Cardozo Lucena 90'
R. Morales 29'
4/22/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group H - 1Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

America de Cali31%
×Draw30%
Cerro Porteno39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Cali
0.95
Cerro Porteno
1.12

Cerro Porteno creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

creates per match

America de Cali
0.83
Cerro Porteno
0.74

allows per match

America de Cali
1.50
Cerro Porteno
1.06

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw
61%
America de Cali or Cerro Porteno
70%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
69%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+
11%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals
61%
America de Cali 2+ goals
25%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
67%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
31%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)
44%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 0.83 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Cerro Porteno attack 0.74 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

America de Cali scores more
31%
level
30%
Cerro Porteno scores more
39%

Cerro Porteno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
Á. Cardozo LucenaCerro PortenoCerro Porteno · M
7.7

Match Events

29'
R. Morales↳ E. Giménez
45'
A. Cardozo
46'
M. Boselli← R. Morales
57'
A. Rodríguez← L. Sánchez
70'
H. Quiñónes← P. Ortiz
70'
G. Murillo← L. Paz
77'
Y. Cabrera
82'
M. Cáceres← F. Carrizo
87'
Mateus Gonçalves← C. Aquino
87'
A. Rodríguez← S. Arzamendia
90+3'
C. Arrieta
90+2'
J. Malagón← M. Torres
90'
Á. Cardozo Lucena

Possession

68%America

Shots

11America

Pass accuracy

57%America

Statistics

AmericaCerro
Overview
68%Possession32%
11Total Shots13
4Corners5
20Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots13
1On Target6
4Off Target4
6Blocked3
4Inside Box7
7Outside Box6
Passing
68%Possession32%
575Total Passes263
479Accurate Passes162
83%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: America de Cali 0–2 Cerro Porteno

Cerro Porteno beat America de Cali 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 22, 2021.

Goals: R. Morales (29'), Á. Cardozo Lucena (90').

America de Cali controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.