Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse

Cerezo Osaka

Preview

10:00

Shimizu S-pulse

8/22/2026

J1 League · Round 3Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Big match

50%

Cerezo Osaka

model favours

50%25%26%

93% of Cerezo Osaka’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cerezo Osaka50%

×Draw25%

Shimizu S-pulse26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerezo OsakaExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.08

Cerezo Osaka

1.61

Shimizu S-pulse

1.08

Cerezo Osaka creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.70

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.70

Shimizu S-pulse

0.97

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.19

Shimizu S-pulse

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw

74%

Cerezo Osaka or Shimizu S-pulse

75%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

50%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

26%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

80%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

48%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

22%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

66%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

29%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

66%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.70 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.61

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more

50%

level

25%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

26%

Cerezo Osaka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
Cerezo Osaka are unbeaten in 6 straight
Cerezo Osaka score first in only 29% of matches
Both teams score in 79% of Cerezo Osaka’s matches
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Cerezo Osaka

Balanced

Shimizu S-pulse

Balanced

53%Possession50%

80%Pass accuracy79%

12.9Shots13.5

1.76xGBiggest gap1.38

Cerezo OsakaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2

Cerezo Osaka

3

Draws

0

Shimizu S-pulse

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 80%

1–10–04–14–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Osaka

WWDWW

S-pulse

WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff