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Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
Preview
05:00
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
12/12/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 19Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Big match
42%
Cerezo Osaka
model favours
42%25%33%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cerezo Osaka42%
×Draw25%
Machida Zelvia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.51
Machida Zelvia
1.33

Cerezo Osaka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.91
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.31
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.89scores more
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
67%
Cerezo Osaka or Machida Zelvia
75%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
58%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
20%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
78%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
44%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
19%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
74%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
38%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
55%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.31 · 5 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.91 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
42%
level
25%
Machida Zelvia scores more
33%

Cerezo Osaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 93% of Cerezo Osaka’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Cerezo Osaka are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Cerezo Osaka score first in only 29% of matches
  • Machida Zelvia have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Cerezo Osaka 2 vs Machida Zelvia 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cerezo Osaka
Attack-heavy
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
53%PossessionBiggest gap45%
81%Pass accuracy78%
14.1Shots12.9
1.87xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Cerezo OsakaMachida Zelvia

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Cerezo Osaka
1
Draws
3
Machida Zelvia
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
0–31–20–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Osaka
WWDWW
Zelvia
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cerezo Osaka host Machida Zelvia

December 12, 2026: Cerezo Osaka take on Machida Zelvia in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cerezo Osaka host Machida Zelvia at Yodoko Sakura Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.