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Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
7/20/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 24Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cerezo Osaka46%
×Draw27%
Albirex Niigata27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.41
Albirex Niigata
1.02

Cerezo Osaka creates 38% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.36
Albirex Niigata
0.95

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.10
Albirex Niigata
1.46

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
73%
Cerezo Osaka or Albirex Niigata
73%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
54%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
22%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
76%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
41%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
17%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
64%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
27%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
63%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.36 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Albirex Niigata attack 0.95 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
46%
level
27%
Albirex Niigata scores more
27%

Cerezo Osaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Albirex Niigata

Albirex Niigata beat Cerezo Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Yodoko Sakura Stadium in Osaka.