Albirex Niigata 2–2 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cerezo Osaka

3/2/2025

J1 League · Round 4Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Albirex Niigata32%

×Draw26%

Cerezo Osaka42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.41

Albirex Niigata

1.21

Cerezo Osaka

1.41

Cerezo Osaka creates 17% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 150 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.57

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.18

Cerezo Osaka

1.24

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.57

Cerezo Osaka

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

58%

Albirex Niigata or Cerezo Osaka

74%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

68%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

13%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

70%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

34%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

12%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

76%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

41%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

44%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.18 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.24 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

32%

level

26%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

42%

Cerezo Osaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff