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Ceres vs Boeung Ket — AFC Cup 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
9 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Boeung Ket
Boeung Ket
2/13/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ceres79%
×Draw12%
Boeung Ket9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
3.29
Boeung Ket
1.08

Ceres creates 205% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.58
Boeung Ket
1.25

allows per match

Ceres
0.92
Boeung Ket
4.00

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Boeung Ket+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Boeung Ket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
91%
Ceres or Boeung Ket
88%
Draw or Boeung Ket
21%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
60%
Boeung Ket wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
96%
Ceres 2+ goals
83%
Ceres 3+ goals
62%
Boeung Ket 1+ goals
66%
Boeung Ket 2+ goals
29%
Boeung Ket 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
90%
Boeung Ket (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Boeung Ket away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.58 + Boeung Ket defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.29

Boeung Ket attack 1.25 + Ceres defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Ceres scores more
79%
level
12%
Boeung Ket scores more
9%

Ceres at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Ceres 9–0 Boeung Ket

Ceres beat Boeung Ket 9-0 in AFC Cup on February 13, 2018.

The match was played at Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City).