Boeung Ket 0–4 Ceres: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Boeung Ket

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ceres

4/11/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boeung Ket22%

×Draw19%

Ceres59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boeung KetExpected goals in this matchCeres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

2.49

Boeung Ket

1.48

Ceres

2.49

Ceres creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

2.22

2.75

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Boeung Ket

1.75

Ceres

2.22

allows per match

Boeung Ket

2.75

Ceres

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boeung Ket+0.00on par

Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boeung Ket ↓

Ceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Boeung Ket or draw

41%

Boeung Ket or Ceres

81%

Draw or Ceres

78%

Winning margin

Boeung Ket wins by 2+

10%

Ceres wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Boeung Ket 1+ goals

77%

Boeung Ket 2+ goals

43%

Boeung Ket 3+ goals

19%

Ceres 1+ goals

92%

Ceres 2+ goals

71%

Ceres 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Boeung Ket (draw refunded)

27%

Ceres (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boeung Ket at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boeung Ket attack 1.75 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ceres attack 2.22 + Boeung Ket defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Boeung Ket scores more

22%

level

19%

Ceres scores more

59%

Ceres at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff