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Ceres vs Binh Duong — AFC Cup 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Binh Duong
Binh Duong
5/15/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ceres57%
×Draw24%
Binh Duong19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
1.69
Binh Duong
0.86

Ceres creates 97% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.58
Binh Duong
0.80

allows per match

Ceres
0.92
Binh Duong
0.80

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
81%
Ceres or Binh Duong
76%
Draw or Binh Duong
43%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
32%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
82%
Ceres 2+ goals
50%
Ceres 3+ goals
24%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
58%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
21%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
75%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.58 + Binh Duong defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Binh Duong attack 0.80 + Ceres defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ceres scores more
57%
level
24%
Binh Duong scores more
19%

Ceres at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceres vs Binh Duong

Binh Duong beat Ceres 1-0 in AFC Cup on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City).