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Binh Duong vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Binh Duong
Binh Duong
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ceres
Ceres
3/12/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Binh Duong41%
×Draw23%
Ceres36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Duong
1.71
Ceres
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Binh Duong
2.20
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Binh Duong
1.00
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw
64%
Binh Duong or Ceres
77%
Draw or Ceres
59%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+
21%
Ceres wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals
82%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
51%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
24%
Ceres 1+ goals
80%
Ceres 2+ goals
48%
Ceres 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)
53%
Ceres (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 2.20 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ceres attack 2.22 + Binh Duong defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Binh Duong scores more
41%
level
23%
Ceres scores more
36%

Binh Duong at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Binh Duong 1–3 Ceres

Ceres beat Binh Duong 3-1 in AFC Cup on March 12, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot)).