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Ceres vs Beijing Guoan — AFC Champions League 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
6/26/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 1Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ceres33%
×Draw24%
Beijing Guoan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
1.38
Beijing Guoan
1.63

Beijing Guoan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ceres
0.75
Beijing Guoan
1.00

allows per match

Ceres
2.25
Beijing Guoan
2.00

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
57%
Ceres or Beijing Guoan
76%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
67%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
15%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
75%
Ceres 2+ goals
40%
Ceres 3+ goals
16%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
80%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
48%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
43%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 0.75 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Ceres defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceres scores more
33%
level
24%
Beijing Guoan scores more
43%

Beijing Guoan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ceres 1–1 Beijing Guoan

Ceres and Beijing Guoan drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.