Beijing Guoan 2–3 Ceres: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Ceres

7/8/2021

AFC Champions League · Group I - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beijing Guoan61%

×Draw20%

Ceres19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchCeres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.20

Beijing Guoan

2.25

Ceres

1.20

Beijing Guoan creates 88% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.20

creates per match

0.70

1.70

allows per match

3.30

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

1.20

Ceres

0.70

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.70

Ceres

3.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Ceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

81%

Beijing Guoan or Ceres

80%

Draw or Ceres

39%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

38%

Ceres wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

89%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

65%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

39%

Ceres 1+ goals

70%

Ceres 2+ goals

34%

Ceres 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

76%

Ceres (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Ceres away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + Ceres defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ceres attack 0.70 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

61%

level

20%

Ceres scores more

19%

Beijing Guoan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff