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Ceres vs Azkals — PFL 2020

Ceres
Ceres
CANC
00:00
Azkals
Azkals
5/20/2023PFLPFL · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ceres52%
×Draw23%
Azkals25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
1.79
Azkals
1.18

Ceres creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.47
Azkals
1.70

allows per match

Ceres
0.65
Azkals
1.10

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Azkals+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Azkals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
75%
Ceres or Azkals
77%
Draw or Azkals
48%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
29%
Azkals wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
83%
Ceres 2+ goals
53%
Ceres 3+ goals
26%
Azkals 1+ goals
69%
Azkals 2+ goals
33%
Azkals 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
67%
Azkals (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Azkals away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.47 + Azkals defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.79

Azkals attack 1.70 + Ceres defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ceres scores more
52%
level
23%
Azkals scores more
25%

Ceres at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceres face Azkals (PFL)

PFL returns with Ceres hosting Azkals. Match starts May 20, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.