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Azkals vs Ceres — PFL 2020

Azkals
Azkals
CANC
09:30
Ceres
Ceres
8/27/2022PFLPFL · Round 2Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Azkals15%
×Draw16%
Ceres70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azkals
1.32
Ceres
2.95

Ceres creates 123% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Azkals
1.50
Ceres
4.69

allows per match

Azkals
1.20
Ceres
1.15

finishing

Azkals+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkals ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Azkals or draw
30%
Azkals or Ceres
84%
Draw or Ceres
85%

Winning margin

Azkals wins by 2+
6%
Ceres wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Azkals 1+ goals
73%
Azkals 2+ goals
38%
Azkals 3+ goals
15%
Ceres 1+ goals
95%
Ceres 2+ goals
79%
Ceres 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Azkals (draw refunded)
17%
Ceres (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkals at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkals attack 1.50 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ceres attack 4.69 + Azkals defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Azkals scores more
15%
level
16%
Ceres scores more
70%

Ceres at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azkals vs Ceres — Match Preview

Azkals face Ceres on August 27, 2022 in this PFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Azkals host Ceres at Biñan Football Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.