Cerdanyola del Vallès 3–0 Castelldefels

Cerdanyola del Vallès

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Castelldefels

Cristian Ubon 90+2'

David Cura 9'

Hicham Benamar 5'

9/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès37%

×Draw27%

Castelldefels36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerdanyola del VallèsExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.27

Castelldefels

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

1.31

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.31

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.43

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Castelldefels →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw

64%

Cerdanyola del Vallès or Castelldefels

73%

Draw or Castelldefels

63%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

16%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

72%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

36%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

14%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

71%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

36%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

51%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

37%

level

27%

Castelldefels scores more

36%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Hicham Benamar

David Cura

31'

Marc Gabaldon← Pol Cuatrecases

46'

David Soriano← Dani Sánchez

46'

Kevin Díaz← Rubén Gimenez

58'

Cristian Ubon← Marc Granero

60'

Isaac Padilla← Blasco

60'

Alberto Salamanca← Fran Orellana

74'

Sergio Paz← Dani Lucea

79'

F. Gonzalez← Hicham Benamar

81'

Álex Segura← Gerard Pedrol

90+2'

Cristian Ubon

Cerdanyola

Castelldefels

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Borja López

31'▲Marc Gabaldon←▼Pol Cuatrecases

58'▲Cristian Ubon←▼Marc Granero

74'▲Sergio Paz←▼Dani Lucea

79'▲F. Gonzalez←▼Hicham Benamar

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

GabaldonUbonPazGonzalez

Manager: Miki Carrillo

46'▲David Soriano←▼Dani Sánchez

46'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Rubén Gimenez

60'▲Isaac Padilla←▼Blasco

60'▲Alberto Salamanca←▼Fran Orellana

81'▲Álex Segura←▼Gerard Pedrol

Castelldefels substitutes

SorianoDíazPadillaSalamancaSegura