Castelldefels 2–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Castelldefels

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cerdanyola del Vallès

Pablo Franco 78'

Isaac Padilla 17'

1/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Castelldefels38%

×Draw28%

Cerdanyola del Vallès34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchCerdanyola del Vallès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Castelldefels

1.23

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 77 away

1.03

creates per match

1.08

1.24

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.08

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

66%

Castelldefels or Cerdanyola del Vallès

72%

Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès

62%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

16%

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

71%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

35%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

13%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

69%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

32%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

52%

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Castelldefels scores more

38%

level

28%

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

34%

Castelldefels at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Isaac Padilla

61'

Álex Segura← Mario Gerboles

66'

Marc Granero← Alex Ruíz

75'

Hicham Benamar← Cristian Ubon

77'

Carlos Cano← Isaac Padilla

77'

Pablo Franco← Alberto Salamanca

78'

Pablo Franco

82'

Iván Tébar← Marc Gabaldon

82'

Dani Lucea← Sergio Paz

87'

Dani Sánchez← Javier Eslava

87'

Blasco← Gerard Pedrol

Castelldefels

Cerdanyola

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miki Carrillo

61'▲Álex Segura←▼Mario Gerboles

77'▲Carlos Cano←▼Isaac Padilla

77'▲Pablo Franco←▼Alberto Salamanca

87'▲Dani Sánchez←▼Javier Eslava

87'▲Blasco←▼Gerard Pedrol

Castelldefels substitutes

SeguraCanoFrancoSánchezBlasco

Manager: Borja López

66'▲Marc Granero←▼Alex Ruíz

75'▲Hicham Benamar←▼Cristian Ubon

82'▲Iván Tébar←▼Marc Gabaldon

82'▲Dani Lucea←▼Sergio Paz

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

GraneroBenamarTébarLucea

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 2–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Castelldefels beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 15, 2023.

Goals: Isaac Padilla (17'), Pablo Franco (78').

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 2–0 Cerdanyola del Vallès