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Cercle Brugge vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oostende
Oostende
K. Vandendriessche 29'
12/12/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 16Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Cercle Brugge47%
×Draw25%
Oostende28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.63
Oostende
1.21

Cercle Brugge creates 35% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 85 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.45
Oostende
1.00

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.43
Oostende
1.81

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
72%
Cercle Brugge or Oostende
75%
Draw or Oostende
53%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
24%
Oostende wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
80%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
48%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
22%
Oostende 1+ goals
70%
Oostende 2+ goals
34%
Oostende 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
62%
Oostende (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 142 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Oostende defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Oostende attack 1.00 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
47%
level
25%
Oostende scores more
28%

Cercle Brugge at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
K. Vandendriessche↳ A. Hjulsager
39'
Johanna Ochieng Omolo
47'
C. Vanhoutte← J. Omolo
52'
David Bates
55'
K. Hazard← Leonardo Lopes
62'
Charles Vanhoutte
71'
T. Somers← D. Hotič
71'
F. Marquet← K. Vandendriessche
73'
N. Bätzner← A. Hjulsager
80'
R. D'Haese← F. Sakala
87'
David Bates
87'
David Bates

Possession

42%Cercle

Shots

6Cercle

Statistics

CercleOostende
Overview
42%Possession58%
6Total Shots10
3Corners3
12Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots10
4On Target5
2Off Target5
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls9
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 0–1 Oostende

Oostende beat Cercle Brugge 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 12, 2020.

Goals: K. Vandendriessche (29').

Oostende controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.