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Cercle Brugge vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Oostende
Oostende
2/23/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 27Jan Breydel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Cercle Brugge46%
×Draw25%
Oostende29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.62
Oostende
1.23

Cercle Brugge creates 32% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 86 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.45
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.43
Oostende
1.79

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
71%
Cercle Brugge or Oostende
75%
Draw or Oostende
54%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
24%
Oostende wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
80%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
48%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
22%
Oostende 1+ goals
71%
Oostende 2+ goals
35%
Oostende 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
62%
Oostende (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 142 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.62

Oostende attack 1.02 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
46%
level
25%
Oostende scores more
29%

Cercle Brugge at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs Oostende

Cercle Brugge and Oostende drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Jan Breydel Stadium in Bruges.