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Ceramica Cleopatra vs National Bank of Egypt — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
5/1/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 3Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra39%
×Draw28%
National Bank of Egypt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.26
National Bank of Egypt
1.14

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
National Bank of Egypt
1.14

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
National Bank of Egypt
1.19

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

National Bank of Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
67%
Ceramica Cleopatra or National Bank of Egypt
72%
Draw or National Bank of Egypt
61%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
17%
National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
72%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
36%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
13%
National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
68%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
32%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
54%
National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
39%
level
28%
National Bank of Egypt scores more
33%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra 2–4 National Bank of Egypt

National Bank of Egypt beat Ceramica Cleopatra 4-2 in Premier League on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.