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Ceramica Cleopatra vs National Bank of Egypt — League Cup 2021

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
12/11/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra36%
×Draw25%
National Bank of Egypt39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.43
National Bank of Egypt
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.86
National Bank of Egypt
1.80

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.21
National Bank of Egypt
1.00

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

National Bank of Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
61%
Ceramica Cleopatra or National Bank of Egypt
75%
Draw or National Bank of Egypt
64%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
17%
National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
76%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
42%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
17%
National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
78%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
44%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
48%
National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.86 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.80 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
36%
level
25%
National Bank of Egypt scores more
39%

National Bank of Egypt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "National Bank of Egypt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Ceramica Cleopatra 0–5 National Bank of Egypt

National Bank of Egypt beat Ceramica Cleopatra 5-0 in League Cup on December 11, 2024.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.