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Centro Español vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Centro Español
Centro Español
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
7/8/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 1Estadio Ferrocarril Midland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Centro Español45%
×Draw28%
Central Cordoba28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Centro Español
1.33
Central Cordoba
0.98

Centro Español creates 36% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 136 away

creates per match

Centro Español
1.59
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Centro Español
1.06
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Centro Español+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Centro Español ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Centro Español or draw
72%
Centro Español or Central Cordoba
72%
Draw or Central Cordoba
55%

Winning margin

Centro Español wins by 2+
21%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Centro Español 1+ goals
74%
Centro Español 2+ goals
38%
Centro Español 3+ goals
15%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
62%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
26%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Centro Español (draw refunded)
62%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Centro Español at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Centro Español attack 1.59 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Centro Español defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Centro Español scores more
45%
level
28%
Central Cordoba scores more
28%

Centro Español at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Centro Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Centro Español vs Central Cordoba

Centro Español and Central Cordoba drew 0-0 in Primera C on July 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ferrocarril Midland in Libertad, Provincia de Buenos Aires.