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Central Cordoba vs Centro Español — Primera C 2026

Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Centro Español
Centro Español
2/3/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 1Estadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Central Cordoba40%
×Draw31%
Centro Español29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba
1.09
Centro Español
0.89

Central Cordoba creates 22% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 50 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba
1.13
Centro Español
0.94

allows per match

Central Cordoba
0.83
Centro Español
1.06

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par
Centro Español+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Centro Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw
71%
Central Cordoba or Centro Español
69%
Draw or Centro Español
60%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+
16%
Centro Español wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals
66%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
30%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Centro Español 1+ goals
59%
Centro Español 2+ goals
22%
Centro Español 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
58%
Centro Español (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 137 matches

Centro Español away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Centro Español defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Centro Español attack 0.94 + Central Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central Cordoba scores more
40%
level
31%
Centro Español scores more
29%

Central Cordoba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Central Cordoba 2–0 Centro Español

Central Cordoba beat Centro Español 2-0 in Primera C on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gabino Sosa in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.