Centre Chiefs 1–0 Extension Gunners: Result & Stats

Centre Chiefs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Extension Gunners

1/17/2026

League #412 · Round 14Botswana National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Centre Chiefs42%

×Draw31%

Extension Gunners26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Centre ChiefsExpected goals in this matchExtension Gunners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.80

Centre Chiefs

1.10

Extension Gunners

0.80

Centre Chiefs creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Centre Chiefs

1.20

Extension Gunners

1.00

allows per match

Centre Chiefs

0.60

Extension Gunners

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Centre Chiefs+0.00on par

Extension Gunners+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Centre Chiefs ↓

Extension Gunners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Centre Chiefs or draw

74%

Centre Chiefs or Extension Gunners

69%

Draw or Extension Gunners

58%

Winning margin

Centre Chiefs wins by 2+

17%

Extension Gunners wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Centre Chiefs 1+ goals

67%

Centre Chiefs 2+ goals

30%

Centre Chiefs 3+ goals

10%

Extension Gunners 1+ goals

55%

Extension Gunners 2+ goals

19%

Extension Gunners 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Centre Chiefs (draw refunded)

62%

Extension Gunners (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Centre Chiefs at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Extension Gunners away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Centre Chiefs attack 1.20 + Extension Gunners defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Extension Gunners attack 1.00 + Centre Chiefs defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Centre Chiefs scores more

42%

level

31%

Extension Gunners scores more

26%

Centre Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Centre Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff