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Centre Chiefs vs Extension Gunners — League #412 2026

Centre Chiefs
Centre Chiefs
FT
2 – 2
Extension Gunners
Extension Gunners
1/12/2019League #412League #412 · Round 16Molepolole Stadium (Molepolole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Centre Chiefs42%
×Draw31%
Extension Gunners26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Centre Chiefs
1.10
Extension Gunners
0.80

Centre Chiefs creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Centre Chiefs
1.20
Extension Gunners
1.00

allows per match

Centre Chiefs
0.60
Extension Gunners
1.00

finishing

Centre Chiefs+0.00on par
Extension Gunners+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Centre Chiefs ↓

Extension Gunners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Centre Chiefs or draw
74%
Centre Chiefs or Extension Gunners
69%
Draw or Extension Gunners
58%

Winning margin

Centre Chiefs wins by 2+
17%
Extension Gunners wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Centre Chiefs 1+ goals
67%
Centre Chiefs 2+ goals
30%
Centre Chiefs 3+ goals
10%
Extension Gunners 1+ goals
55%
Extension Gunners 2+ goals
19%
Extension Gunners 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Centre Chiefs (draw refunded)
62%
Extension Gunners (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Centre Chiefs at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Extension Gunners away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Centre Chiefs attack 1.20 + Extension Gunners defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Extension Gunners attack 1.00 + Centre Chiefs defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Centre Chiefs scores more
42%
level
31%
Extension Gunners scores more
26%

Centre Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Centre Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Centre Chiefs vs Extension Gunners

Centre Chiefs and Extension Gunners drew 2-2 in League #412 on January 12, 2019.

The match was played at Molepolole Stadium (Molepolole).